Criminal Organizations and Networks

Based on the attached report.

-History of Climate Change

– Demographic Trends

-Economic Trends

-Socio-Cultural Trend

-Political Trend

-Technological trends

-Physical, Environmental Trends

All of them must be related to Climate change and with examples. External sources can be used but must be cited. More focus on the attached report.December 2000

Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts

This paper was approved for publication by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under the author- ity of the Director of Central Intelligence.

Prepared under the direction of the National Intelligence Council.

NIC 2000-02

13 December 2000

From the Director of Central Intelligence

I am pleased to introduce Global Trends 2015, which takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker. This is not a traditional intelligence assessment, depending on classified sources and methods. Rather, it reflects an Intelligence Community fully engaged with outside experts in a constructive dialogue about the future. I want to encourage this lively exchange.

From the beginning of this ambitious project in fall 1999, we intended to make GT-2015 an unclassified assessment to be shared with the public. Experts from academia, think-tanks and the corporate world have made major contributions, and their reactions, along with those of other specialists who will see our work for the first time, will strengthen our continuing analysis of the issues covered in GT-2015. Grappling with the future is necessarily a work in progress that, I believe, should constantly seek new insights while testing and revising old judgments.

I hope that GT-2015 will contribute to a growing strategic dialogue in the US Government that will help our country meet the challenges and opportunities ahead. I look forward to your comments.

George J. Tenet

DI Design Center 377188AI 12-00

From the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council:

The National Intelligence Council (NIC), a small center of strategic thinking in the US Intelligence Community, launched Global Trends 2015 to stimulate US policymakers to think “beyond their inboxes.” This work expands the effort of Global Trends 2010, published in 1997 under the leadership of my predecessor, Professor Richard Cooper of Harvard.

We identify global “drivers” and estimate their impact on the world over the next 15 years—demography and natural resources, technology, globalization and governance, likely conflicts and prospects for international cooperation, and the role of the United States. The judgments flow from our best efforts to produce a comprehensive picture of the world in 2015. Analysis will help senior leaders better cope with, for example, the uncertainties involved with the decline of Russia, the emergence of China, or the political, economic and societal dynamics in the Middle East.

Global Trends 2015 should be seen as a work-in-progress, a flexible framework for thinking about the future that we will update and revise as conditions evolve. As such, we are pleased to share it with the public, confident that the feedback we receive will improve our understanding of the issues we treat. We welcome comments on all aspects of this study.

Global Trends 2015 is not a traditional intelligence product based on classic intelligence sources, methods and procedures. The National Intelligence Council gave overall direction to the year-long effort, assisted by colleagues from other intelligence agencies and offices. We sought out and drew heavily on experts outside the Intelligence Community to help us both identify the key drivers and assess their impact worldwide. Ultimately, however, the conclusions are our responsibility.

The NIC’s Vice Chairman, Ellen Laipson, and I want to acknowledge the special contributions of several individuals. Enid Schoettle, my special adviser on the NIC, was a principal drafter and coordinator, and she was ably assisted by retired diplomat Richard Smith. The DCI Environmental and Societal Issues Center, led by Paul Frandano, made extensive, invaluable contributions. John Phillips, Chief Scientist of CIA, Directorate of Science and Technology, offered helpful suggestions. Tom Fingar of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research made important inputs, as did Ken Knight and Pat Neary of the Defense Intelligence Agency. All the regional and functional National Intelligence Officers (NIOs)—identified at the back page of this publication—contributed sections and provided insights in their areas of expertise. In the final stages of preparing the full text, Enid Schoettle and NIOs Stuart A. Cohen (with his crack staff), David F. Gordon, and Barry F. Lowenkron performed the critical service of integrating substantive comments and judgments.