Answer the Questions Regarding the “3. Carbon Dioxide’s Oversized Footprint” graph from the AGU’s selection offive graphs from the recent IPCC assessment (AR6):When it comes to climate change, atten

Answer the Questions Regarding the “3. Carbon Dioxide’s Oversized Footprint” graph from the AGU’s selection offive graphs from the recent IPCC assessment (AR6):When it comes to climate change, atten
Q1. Regarding palaeoclimatological data that includes measur ements of [CO2] for at least the past 100,000 years 1. Obtain and identify the sour ce of this data. Share a view of the data in your submission. Data obtained from: https://www .bas.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/003.jpg 2. Briefly , how ar e [CO2] measur ements extracted fr om the data? The European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) extracted the data by drilling the ice core from Dome C on the Antarctic Platea 3. Fr om the data, estimate the minimum, maximum, and average values [CO2] over a time interval of your choosing that is cover ed by the data Measuring from 800,000 years to 0 years Max. value = 300 ppmv Min. value = 170 ppmv A vg. value = (300 ppmv – 170 ppmv) / 2 + 170 ppmv = (130 ppmv) / 2 + 170 ppmv = 235 ppmv 4. Based upon the average value, estimate the [CO2] in 2022 (pr esent) and 2100 (future) 5. 2022 – 235 ppm ± 2100 – 235 ppm ± Q2. Regarding Mauna Loa Observatory data for the [CO2] at present and in ‘recent’ past 1. State the curr ent value for [CO2]. Convert this value to a per centage. August 2022: 417.19 ppm August 2021: 414.47 ppm 1ppm = 0.0001% %=417/10000 =0.0417 417.19 ppm = 0.041719 2. Qualify the pr oportion of Earth’ s atmosphere that is [CO2] in r elative terms. (Feel fr ee to intr oduce an analogy , for example – other than one based on counting Smarties!) Driving one million kilometers, 417.19 of those kilometers will be the concentration level of carbon dioxide ([CO2]). And is equivalent to the drive from Barrie, Ontario, to Ottawa, Ontario. 3. What does your intuition suggest about this pr oportion in the context of climate change? Why? . I think the concentration level of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is very high. In examining, we get 417.19 ppm translating to 0.041719%, which is a low number . But, it is the opposite which can be alarming. For instance, due to the increase of [CO2] in the atmosphere, glaciers are melting, which may cause endangerment to arctic life 4. Using one of the Keeling Curves 1. Estimate the curr ent value for the [CO2]. According to the black curve, the estimate for [CO2] in 2020 is 417.5 ppm 2. Choose a time in the past that is cover ed by the curve and estimate [CO2]. According to the black curve, the estimate for [CO2] in 2020 is 413 ppm. 3. Using your past and pr esent estimates for the [CO2], estimate the gr owth rate for this gas in our atmosphere. 2022 – 417.5 ppm 2020 – 413 ppm Slope = Rise / Run = (417.5 ppm – 413 ppm) / (2022-2020) = 4.5 ppm / 3 years = 1.5 ppm/year 4. Based on this gr owth rate, estimate [CO2] in 2100 CO2] in 2100 = 1.5ppm/year * 79years = 1 18.50 ppm Regarding the AGU’s selection offive graphs fr om the recent IPCC assessment (AR6) Using the first graph fr om point 5 on “Carbon Extraction.” It is estimated that [CO2] in 2100 will be 500 ppm. 1. Choose one of the emissions scenarios depicted in the point 4 graph: 1. Estimate the [CO2] in 2100. It is called 550ppm 2. Using your own words, explain what is being measur ed on the vertical axis of this figur e. The quantity of CO2 emissions being measured every year . 3. Relative to today , quantify the per centage change by 2100 for the scenario you chose. Case: Very high emissions 2020 = 40 GtCO2/yr 2100 = 125 GtCO2/yr % Increase = (40 GtCO2/yr + 125 GtCO2/yr) / 40 GtCO/yr = 165 GtCO2/yr / 40 GtCO2/yr =126% increase from 2020 to 2100 for ‘very high emissions case 4. Pr ovide a simplified pr ocess-flow diagram that captur es this result.
Answer the Questions Regarding the “3. Carbon Dioxide’s Oversized Footprint” graph from the AGU’s selection offive graphs from the recent IPCC assessment (AR6):When it comes to climate change, atten
1 . R eg ard in g W ate r V ap or: 1 . C hara cte riz e t h e a b so rp tio n s p ectr u m o f w ate r v ap or i n t h e I R p ortio n o f t h e E M s p ectr u m . T he a b so rp tio n s p ectr u m f o r w ate r v ap or c o nta in s v ario us b ro ad a b so rp tio n p eak s i n t h e i n fra re d p ortio n o f t h e s p ectr u m a n d t h ey a re a p pro xim ate ly a t 0 .8 , 0 .9 , 1 2 , 3 a n d 6 m ic ro m ete rs o n t h e w av ele n g th s c ale . A ddit io nally , t h ere i s b ro ad ban d s ta rtin g a t 1 2 m ic ro m ete rs t o 2 0 m ic ro m ete rs . T his m ean s t h at w ate r v ap or h as t h e a b ility t o a b so rb r a d ia tio n i n t h e i n fra re d p art o f t h e s p ectr u m . 2 . B ase d o n t h is c h ara cte riz a tio n , i s w ate r v ap or c o n sid ere d a ‘ g re en hou se -a ctiv e g as’? Y es, w ate r v ap or i s c o nsid ere d a ‘ g re en house -a ctiv e g as’. 3 . A ssu m e: “ F or a n y g iv en t e m pera tu re , E arth ’s a tm osp here h as a f in it e c a p acit y t o ‘ c a rry ’ w ate r v ap or.” I d en tif y a t l e a st t w o p ro cesse s t h at s e rv e t o ‘ r e g u la te ’ t h e a m ou nt o f w ate r v a p or i n t h e a tm osp here . T he f ir s t p ro cess i s t h e t e m pera tu re o f t h e s u rro undin g a tm osp here a n d t h e s e co nd o ne i s r e la tiv e h um id ity . 4 . B ase d o n t h is i n vestig atio n , w hat a re t h e i m plic a tio n s f o r w ate r v ap or a s a n a gen t o f c lim ate c h an ge? F ro m t h e p re v io us a n sw er, t e m pera tu re c o ntr o ls t h e a m ount o f w ate r v ap or i n t h e s u rro undin g a tm osp here . I f t e m pera tu re c h an ges d ue t o c lim ate c h an ge, s o d oes t h e a m ount o f w ate r v ap or a s i t i s c o rre la te d . 2 . R eg ard in g C arb on D io xid e: 1 . C hara cte riz e t h e a b so rp tio n s p ectr u m o f C arb on D io xid e i n t h e I R p ortio n o f t h e E M s p ectr u m . T he a b so rp tio n s p ectr u m f o r C arb on D io xid e h as m an y b ro ad a b so rp tio n p eak s i n t h e i n fra re d p ortio n o f t h e s p ectr u m . w hic h a re a p pro xim ate ly a t 3 , 4 , 5 a n d 1 4 m ic ro m ete rs o n t h e w av ele n gth s c ale . A ddit io nally , t h ere i s a b ro ad ban d s ta rtin g a t 1 4 m ic ro m ete rs t o 1 9 m ic ro m ete rs . T his m ean s t h at C arb on D io xid e h as t h e a b ility t o a b so rb r a d ia tio n i n t h e i n fra re d p art o f t h e s p ectr u m . 2 . B ase d o n t h is c h ara cte riz a tio n , i s C arb on D io xid e c o n sid ere d a ‘ g re en hou se -a ctiv e g as’? Y es, C arb on D io xid e i s c o nsid ere d a ‘ g re en house -a ctiv e g as’. 3 . S ta te t h e p erc en ta ge o f C O 2 i n t h e V en utia n a n d M artia n a tm osp here s. T he C O 2 p erc en ta g e i n t h e V en utia n a tm osp here i s r o ughly 9 5% a n d i n t h e M artia n a tm osp here , t h e p erc en ta g e i s r o ughly 9 2% . 4 . R esta te y ou r L ab 1 , P art 1 e stim ate f o r t h e c u rre n t v alu e f o r t h e [ C O 2]. B ase d o n t h e d ata f o und i n L ab 1 , P art 1 , t h e e stim ate f o r t h e c u rre n t v alu e f o r [ C O 2] i s 4 17ppm . 3 . C om pare a n d c o n tr a st w ate r v ap or a n d C arb on D io xid e: 1 . C an a s in gle a b so rp tio n b an d d is tin gu is h b etw een w ate r v ap or a n d C arb on D io xid e? T hro ugh m y s k etc h es, t h e t w o f o rm s o f g ase s ( w ate r v ap or a n d c arb on d io xid e) c an b e d if f e re n tia te d . C heck in g t h e s k etc h f o r w ate r v ap or, t h e p eak s o f t h e w av ele n gth a re f u rth er a p art m ean in g t h at t h e b ro ad ban d r a n ge i s a b out f iv e m ic ro m ete rs . H ow ev er, l o okin g a t t h e s k etc h f o r c arb on d io xid e, t h e w av ele n gth s a re c lo se r t o geth er m ean in g t h at t h e b ro ad ban d r a n ge i s a b out e ig ht m ic ro m ete rs . 2 . H ow d oes u se o f t h e e n tir e a b so rp tio n s p ectr u m f o r e a ch o f t h ese g ase s a ffe ct y ou r a b ilit y t o m ak e a c le a r d is tin ctio n ? T he r ic e m odel i n dic ate s t h at e v en t h o ugh w ate r v ap or a n d c arb on d io xid e a re i n t h e s a m e f a m ily , t h ey b oth s till h av e q uite d if f e re n t c h ara cte ris tic s s u ch a s t h eir i n fra re d a b so rp tio n l e v els . T his c an b e c o m pare d t o t h e r ic e m odel i f w ate r v ap or w as r ic e a n d c arb on d io xid e w as n oodle s. A lt h ough b oth r e q uir e w ate r a n d h eat, t h ey c o ok d if f e re n tly 3 . E xp la in t h e o n goin g a n d p re ssin g c o n cern w it h a n th ro p ogen ic e m is sio n s o f C arb on D io xid e r e la tiv e t o w ate r v ap or. C ookin g r ic e i s v ery l in ear a s t h ere a re o nly 3 f a cto rs i n volv ed : w ate r, r ic e a n d h eat. I f c arb on d io xid e w ere n oodle s a n d w e a d ded t h at t o t h e p ot o f r ic e, i t w ould b e v ery d if f ic u lt t o t r y t o c o ok b oth p erfe ctly a s t h ey h av e d if f e re n t p ro pertie s. T he s a m e g oes f o r w ate r v ap or a n d c arb on d io xid e i n t h e a tm osp here , w here f in din g a b ala n ce b etw een e sp ecia lly w ith a n th ro pogen ic e m is sio ns o f c arb on d io xid e i s d if f ic u lt.
Answer the Questions Regarding the “3. Carbon Dioxide’s Oversized Footprint” graph from the AGU’s selection offive graphs from the recent IPCC assessment (AR6):When it comes to climate change, atten
R ega rd in g e ach o f y o ur t h re e P art 1 s c e n ario s f o r [ C O 2] i n 2 100: E stim ate t h e t e m pera tu re c h an ge v ia EB CM f o r e ach s c e n ario . ( T o u se E B CM , m ake a c o py o f t h e s p re ad sh eet p ro vid ed . A dju st o nly t h e t e m pera tu re -d if fe re n ce v a lu e i n c e ll I 6 t o o bta in t h e d esir e d [ C O 2] v a lu e i n c e ll D 8.) T h e d if fe re n ce i n c a rb o n d io xid e d egre e b etw een Q uestio n1 P art4 a n d Q uestio n3 P art1 is 4 91p pm -4 47p pm = 4 4p m . T h e t e m pera tu re c h an ge f r o m E B CM i s 0 .6 2 T h e d if fe re n ce i n c a rb o n d io xid e d egre e b etw een Q uestio n 2 P art 4 a n d Q uestio n 3 P art 1 i s 7 81.3 6p pm -4 91p pm =2 90.3 6p pm /S o t h e t e m pera tu re c h an ge f r o m E B CM i s 4 .0 6. O n a c o py o f t h e “ 2 . F u tu re W arm in g P ath w ays” g ra p h f r o m t h e A G U ’s s e le ctio n o ffiv e c h arts f r o m t h e r e ce n t I P CC a sse ssm en t ( A R6), p lo t y o ur t h re e e stim ate s f o r 2 100 a n d i d en tif y t h e c o rre sp o ndin g e m is sio ns s c e n ario . 1 .4 +0 .6 2=2 .0 2 ℃ . W hen t h e e stim atio n o f t h e G lo bal s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re o f 2 100 i s 2 .0 2 ℃ , w hic h i s a b ove l o w e m is sio n a n d u nder m id -le ve l e m is sio n. T h e r e su lt i s t h at t h e P aris a gre e m en t t a rg e ts . 1 .4 +4 .0 6=5 .4 6 ℃ . W hen t h e e stim atio n o f t h e G lo bal s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re i s 5 .4 6 ℃ i n 2 100, w hic h i s a b ove t h e v e ry h ig h e m is sio n. U sin g a c o py o f t h e “ 4 . A nnual C arb o n D io xid e E m is sio ns” g ra p h f r o m t h e A G U ’s s e le ctio n o ffiv e g ra p hs f r o m t h e r e ce n t I P CC a sse ssm en t ( A R6), e stim ate t h e C O 2 e m is sio ns f o r 2 100 i n G tC O 2/y r c o rre sp o ndin g t o e ach o f y o ur t h re e s c e n ario s. W hen t h e e stim atio n o f G lo bal s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re o f 2 100 i s 2 .0 2, t h e C O 2 e m is sio n f o r 2 1 00 i s 9 .5 G t C O 2/y r W hen t h e e stim atio n o f G lo bal s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re o f 2 100 i s 5 .4 6, t h e C O 2 e m is sio n f o r 2 1 00 i s 1 45 G tC O 2/y r W hen t h e e stim atio n o f G lo bal s u rfa ce t e m pera tu re i s 6 .0 8 i n 2 100, t h e C O 2 e m is sio n f o r 2 100 i s 1 53 G tC O 2/y r R ega rd in g t h e p o te n tia l f o r a ‘ C O VID -1 9 a n o m aly ’ a t Y o rk U i n 2 021: B ase d o n t h e c a lc u la to r h ere , w hen d o es t h e m axim um U V I n d ex v a lu e o ccu r? A cco rd in g t o t h ese t w o f ig u re s, i t i s i n fe rre d t h at t h e m axim um U V I n dex v a lu e w ill b e r e ach ed o n J u ly 1 6, 2 021,w hic h i s 9 .1 . U sin g F ig u re 1 (b ) f r o m t h e r e se arc h p ublic a tio n h ere , e stim ate t h e m axim um v a lu e o f t h e i n cre ase i n D W SW i r ra d ia n ce a t t h e s a m e d ate a s t h e U V I n d ex m axim um i n W /m 2. 0 .5 34W /m 2 O bta in t h e E M OS i r ra d ia n ce d ata c o rre sp o ndin g t o t h is s a m e d ate . S ta te t h e m axim um v a lu e o f t h e D W SW i r ra d ia n ce i n W /m 2. 789W/m², A dd t h e i n cre ase i n D W SW i r ra d ia n ce f r o m t h e r e se arc h p ublic a tio n t o y o ur E M OS d ata t o d ete rm in e t h e p erc e n ta ge i n cre ase . ( T h is i s C O VID -1 9 a n o m aly i n t e rm s o f D W SW i r ra d ia n ce a t E M OS.) 0 .5 34/(0 .5 34+7 89)* 1 00% =0 .0 68% S u btra ct t h e p erc e n ta ge i n cre ase i n t h e D W SW i r ra d ia n ce d ata f r o m c e ll I 8 o f t h e E B CM m odel. ( E n su re y o ur t e m pera tu re c a lc u la tio ns h ave b een z e ro ed o ut i n E B CM – i . e ., c e ll I 6 h as b een r e se t t o 0 .) 1 % -0 .0 68% =0 .9 32% S t a te t h e r e su lt in g t e m pera tu re c h an ge d ete rm in ed b y E B CM f r o m c e ll D 6. ( Ig n o re t h e c h an ge i n [ C O 2].) 2 .6 346°C H ow d o es y o ur E B CM t e m pera tu re e stim ate c o m pare w it h F ig u re 1 (c ) o f t h e r e se arc h p ublic a tio n? H ow d o es F ig u re 1 (a ) f r o m t h e r e se arc h p ub lic a tio n f a cto r i n to t h is C O VID -1 9 a n o m aly s c e n ario ? D ust a n d h aze o bstr u ct t h e s u n’s l ig h t a n d l e ad t o a n a e ro so l o ptic a l d ep th M easu re m en t. B y a b so rb in g o r s c a tt e rin g s u nlig h t, a tm osp heric p artic le s b lo ck s u nlig h t. T h e n um ber o f t r ip s b y c a r h as d ecre ase d d urin g t h e C ovid -1 9 p erio d, r e su lt in g i n a s u bsta n tia l d ecre ase i n t h e n um ber o f a e ro so ls i n t h e a ir . A s a r e su lt , t h e g ro und h as b een h it w it h m ore s u nlig h t d urin g t h e C ovid -1 9. I n h is r e ce n t b o ok, B ill G ate s s ta te d : “ … t h e w orld ’s g re en ho use g a s e m is sio ns p ro bab ly d ro pped j u st 5 p erc e n t, a n d p o ssib ly l e ss t h an t h at. W hat’s r e m ark a b le t o m e i s n o t h ow m uch e m is sio ns w en t d ow n b eca u se o f t h e p an dem ic , b ut h ow l it t le .” D oes G ate s’ n o tio n o f w hat’s r e m ark a b le a p ply t o y o ur a n aly sis ? E xp la in . D urin g C ovid -1 9, t h e a m ount o f D W S W hit in g t h e s u rfa ce w as b o oste d b y m ore t h an 5 0% , a cco rd in g t o t h is q uo te f r o m B ill G ate s. T h is c o uld h ave a p o te n tia l i m pact. T h e e p id em ic h as a ls o a ffe cte d h um an a ctiv it ie s t o a g re at e xte n t, b ut g re en ho use g a s e m is sio ns a re s till d ow n 5 % s in ce t h e e p id em ic b ega n . A lo ng-t e rm p re se n ce o f g re en ho use g a se s i n t h e a ir i s m ost l ik e ly r e sp o nsib le f o r t h is . A ddit io nall y , t h e e p id em ic i n cre ase s A O D b eca u se a e ro so l c o nte n t i s r e d uce d i n t h e a ir .